At the beginning of the new year, in order to understan […]
At the beginning of the new year, in order to understand the forecast of the operation trend of machinery industry in 2018 and the change of investment intention, and enrich the sources of information for the operation analysis of the industry, CMAC conducted special investigations. For the stock, price, market expectations, investment plans and investment direction and other issues, conducted a survey of more than 100 machinery enterprises and telephone interviews. Involving construction machinery, petrochemical and general, machine tools and tools, electrical appliances, automobiles, heavy mining, instrumentation, basic parts and other 10 major industries. The results show that in 2018 business confidence increased but the pressure remains the same, prudent investment but structural optimization.
Order to better confidence
In the amount of orders, 60% of the enterprises surveyed in hand than the previous year to achieve growth in orders, 20% of business orders and the previous year. In the ordering cycle, 78% of the enterprises in hand orders to meet the production needs within six months, the situation started basically stable. Affected by this, business confidence has increased. Fifty percent of the companies expect the production scale to expand over the previous year, and another 41% expect the production scale to be the same as the previous year. The proportion of enterprises expected to achieve profit growth is 61%, higher than the expected expansion of production scale; 33% expected profit flat.
In addition, for the operating environment, companies make a bias towards optimistic judgments. Nearly 98% of the surveyed companies think the macroeconomic trend will be flat or increase in 2018, while 84% think the market demand of their products will be flat or increase, and 61% expect that the export market will see obvious growth.
Rising costs are difficult to conduct
From the perspective of raw material costs, the price of raw materials represented by steel has risen sharply since 2017, putting pressure on the production and operation of machinery enterprises. For the 2018 raw material price forecast, 77% of enterprises are expected to continue the upward trend, which is characterized by high turbulence or turbulence upward; the other 23% of enterprises are expected to continue the shock.
For raw material prices to smooth the downstream conduction problem, 30% of the companies think it is difficult to conduct, 70% of the companies that need to be observed. In a telephone interview, the enterprise explained in detail that in order to resolve the risk of the raw material price rising too fast, for the products with large steel consumption and long production cycle, the enterprises signed contracts with the users for opening contracts - that is, according to the real-time price adjustment of the steel products at delivery Contract amount. In addition, the audit of the contract is more stringent, strict control of the loss of the risk of signing the contract. However, even with a variety of methods, only 34% of the companies surveyed could realize the price increase of finished products.
In terms of labor costs, rising labor costs are generally faced by enterprises, the annual increase in recent years at 8% to 10%. In response to rising labor costs, 27% of companies surveyed have plans to lay off employees. When asked about job cuts, some companies said they plan to reduce their frontline staff by raising the level of automated production. Others said that as the number of frontline workers is already at Lower level, plans to squeeze management.
29% of companies plan to increase their staff, and when asked about their targets, companies have said they want to increase R & D personnel rather than average employees. Another part of the surveyed enterprises plans to increase the proportion of R & D personnel in the total number of employees based on the same number of employees.
It is understood that the current salary of R & D staff is about 1.5 to 3 times the salary of ordinary workers, so the adjustment of employment structure will also be an important factor in boosting labor costs continued to rise.
Investment prudence direction adjustment
Investment in fixed assets and investment plans are another focus of this survey. The pooled results show that the last large-scale investment in fixed assets of the enterprise concentrated in the "Eleventh Five-Year" to "Twelfth Five-Year" period, accounting for 71% of the surveyed enterprises. Investment is mainly used to expand production capacity required plant construction and equipment acquisition. After this round of investment, the surveyed enterprises have basically formed a certain scale of production and production capacity, sufficient to meet the market demand for their traditional products.
24% of the companies surveyed made large-scale investments in 2016 and 2017. It is understood that this period of large-scale investment and R & D and more related, in part, is the establishment of technology research and development center, in part for the successful development of new products and building production base, compared to the previous period to simply expand the production capacity of certain changes in investment direction.
When asked about future investment plans, companies generally think that there is a low probability of another similar round of investment. After the investment will be localized, the scale will be basically stable at the level of the past two years. The survey results show that 33% of the planned investment in 2018 will be lower than the previous year, 44% of enterprises will be basically the same as last year, only 23% of the plan to increase investment. In the direction of investment in fixed assets, the basic focus on intelligent digital transformation, energy saving and transformation and so on. In addition, the development strategy of increasing R & D investment and reducing investment in fixed assets has been repeatedly mentioned by enterprises.
The survey results show that the market confidence of machinery enterprises started to increase in 2018, but investment is still cautious. It is expected that the industry will achieve a smooth operation throughout the year and investment in fixed assets will continue to be low.