The data recovery of the machinery industry since 2017 […]
The data recovery of the machinery industry since 2017 is on the one hand a result of the positive development and initiative taken by the entire industry under the guidance of the state's macroeconomic policies. At the same time, there are also cardinal factors, which are restorative growth on the basis of the previous year's low. The machinery industry is expected to achieve a total revenue of 27 trillion yuan for main business in 2017, industrial added value and revenue will all increase by about 10%, and its trade surplus will approach 100 billion U.S. dollars. China Machinery Industry Federation predicts that the operation of machinery industry in 2018 is expected to be relatively stable but the growth rate is expected to be slightly lower than that in 2017. The foreign trade will continue its upward trend in 2017 and show a smooth operation.
Although the scale of China's machinery industry has been ranking first in the world for many years in a row, the problem of being big but not strong remains outstanding. There are imbalances and inadequacies in the development of the industry, which are mainly reflected in the shortcomings of the industry. Meanwhile, the capability of independent innovation is not strong, Common technical support system is not perfect, core technology and key components with high dependence on foreign countries, service-oriented manufacturing development lags behind the contradiction between excess capacity highlights and many other issues, but the current main contradiction is the lack of demand and overcapacity contradictions exist, fair competition The market environment and the contradiction between domestic innovative products and imported equipment.
According to the situation of the key enterprises contacted by China Machinery Industry Federation, most of the surveyed enterprises showed the tendency of differentiation in the order of hand, the demand of advantageous enterprises increased, the orders of large projects continued to be kept, the production was overtime and some enterprises had obtained the full-year Orders, production capacity basically saturated; but the other part of the business due to the external environment, its own market competitiveness and other factors in hand orders decline compared with the same period, the outlook is grim.
Operating pressure is still large
In the context of further adjustment of the supply-side structure, industrial enterprises continued to cut capacity due to the relative weakness of their products and technology services in emerging industries while traditional service sectors continued to reduce capacity (by 2017, 50 million tons of steel capacity was reduced, More than 50 million kilowatts of coal production capacity, the withdrawal of more than 150 million tons of coal production capacity, the national network shrinking the size of the tender, etc.), the market demand increased uncertainty, the industry is facing both the traditional services to both traditional and industrial restructuring and upgrading, the structure The task of adjusting the emerging demand and accelerating the ability to meet the needs of emerging industries such as smart manufacturing, new energy sources, new materials and life sciences and forming new momentum for the development of the industry is arduous.
Industry supply and demand structural problems prominent
Low-end product overcapacity, lack of supply of high-end products seriously hindered the development of the quality of the industry. The degree of autonomy of core products of main products needs to be improved urgently, and key products are required to make up shortcomings. The development of a considerable part of the major products in the industry is based on the extension of the introduction of technology in the 1990s, with continued improvement and limited space for independent innovation. Key products in the product line, the key performance indicators such as short board obvious, in recent years the industry's import and export deficit has been high, a careful analysis of the deficit structure, to a certain extent and the objective existence of the industry shortcomings have a great relationship.
Enterprises reflect the rapid rise in costs
Iron and steel prices rose faster in 2017, some of the charge continued to rise (such as: magnesium doubled in 2016), the supply of alloy raw materials to shoddy phenomenon, coupled with environmental constraints, the market supply of some casting supplies shortage. At the same time by the lack of market demand, production capacity is too large, low-cost competition in enterprises is still intense, the user deliberately arrears more prominent. In addition to the cost of raw materials, labor costs, environmental costs, accessories, and various related chips and components costs rose sharply.
2018 facing the macro environment
First, the consumer environment. China's macro-economy will maintain its steady growth modestly, and the overall employment and income of residents will remain stable. In the meantime, the deepening influence of the Internet development and continuous innovation in the format and pattern of consumption will further promote the release of consumer potential and promote the growth of consumer products related to machinery.
Second, the investment environment. The stability of investment in fixed assets in the whole society is still relatively weak. However, driven by such favorable factors as the export growth, the improvement of profit growth, the demand for investment in technological upgrading, the acceleration of investment in emerging industries and the acceleration of PPP mode, the fixed assets of machinery industry, Investment is expected to improve.
Third, technology competition environment. Since the financial crisis, the kinetic energy of scientific and technological innovation has been continuously accumulated, and technologies such as information, new energy, biology and new materials have made continuous breakthroughs at the original level by means of interconnection, integration and grafting. The tendency of smart technology to replace labor-intensive technologies is evident. The diversification of financing modes and open cooperation mechanisms has deepened the application of science and technology and accelerated the transformation of achievements, leading to the enhancement of the development of machinery industry and the inevitable structural adjustment of industrial development.
Fourth, the industry competitive environment. It will be hard to rely solely on low-cost models for competitive advantage. The space for the introduction and imitation of technology has been gradually narrowing. Advanced countries and enterprises are still at the high end of the international value chain through technology integration, integration and grafting. The space for "technology spillover effect" will become smaller and smaller in the future. Conflicts between the high-end machinery industry and the low-end overcapacity still exist.
Fifth, the foreign trade environment. In 2018, the world economy will maintain a moderate growth. According to the latest United Nations forecast, "developing economies will continue to be the main driver of global economic growth, with China's economy expected to grow by 6.5% in both 2017 and 2018." Re-industrialization in advanced economies has been fruitful, As the demand for economy improves, the characteristics of China's economy in high-quality development have become more evident, which in turn is conducive to the continued improvement of trade. However, the intensification of international trade protectionism, the increase of trade frictions, the uncertain trend of the RMB exchange rate and the increasingly fierce global industrial competition will affect the growth of foreign trade to a certain extent.
From the perspective of the import and export market of machinery industry in recent years, Asia is the major import and export region with the share of imports and exports at around 50%. From the perspective of the country, the imports mainly come from Japan, Germany and the United States. The total amount of imports from January to October of 2017 was US $ 55.165 billion, US $ 45.505 billion and US $ 30.064 billion, accounting for 22.24%, 18.35% and 12.12% of the total imports of the machinery industry respectively %. The export market is diversified.
Overall, the foreign trade in machinery industry will maintain a positive growth in 2018, but growth will not exceed 2017.
Policy environment continues to be steady
Firstly, there are favorable factors. First, the general tone of "seeking progress while maintaining stability" in economic work has not changed, releasing the information of maintaining the continuity and stability of macroeconomic policies. The determination of the state to continue to clearly define the development of the real economy has not changed. "Made in China 2025 "The relevant supporting policies are being promoted in an orderly manner, providing a good policy environment for the development of machinery industry. Second, the growth rate of key economic indicators of machinery industry in 2017 is steadily rising. Third, the order situation was stable and no signs of drastic changes occurred. Fourth, the transformation and upgrading of machinery industry is far from complete, but has been advancing, and achieved some success, the toughness of the machinery industry is growing.
Second, unfavorable factors are the following: First, the situation in 2017 is relatively good. Investment in national special funds will be weakened in 2018. Even if the intensity is not reduced, the stimulus effect may also decrease. The exit of preferential policies for small displacement cars in the automobile industry will also be affected in some extent in 2018 . Second, there is no fundamental change in the industry development environment for the traditional users of the machinery industry, such as steel, electricity, coal, chemicals, petroleum, etc., in the capacity-to-production stage. However, under the guidance of the supply-side structural reforms, the above industries will optimize inventories, upgrade them and provide new opportunities for the development of the machinery industry. Third, the growth rate of trucks and construction machinery in 2018 will drop on a high basis in 2017; fourth, the production and sales of leading products in the electrician industry (power generation equipment and UHV transmission and transformation equipment) are expected to be more difficult in 2018.